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Magnificent Kinkakuji
By: Carl Delfeld
Last week during his tour of Kyoto Japan, President Bush visited the Golden
Pavilion (Kinkakuji) and described it as “magnificent”. He was probably
referring to the 1398 Japanese architecture but may just as well have been
referring to gold prices which are at an 18-year high. Gold has been a
magnificent investment and still has considerable upside.
It is a rare portfolio that I build for a client that does not have some
allocation to gold and other precious metals. There are three basic reasons why
investors should still consider adding it to their portfolio.
First, gold prices are not normally correlated to other asset class prices. It
therefore serves as a buffer or shock absorber to the value of a portfolio when
other assets classes are out of favor.
Secondly, there are supply and demand factors. Central banks have been net
sellers of gold over the past twenty years. Gold accounts for about 9% of the
$4.4 trillion in world central bank foreign exchange and gold reserves, down
from 15% in early 2000.
But some central banks are now going the other way. For example, the Russian
central bank wants to increase gold’s share of its reserves from 5% to 10%.
Jewelry demand for gold is also picking up especially in China and India. Global
investors are also using gold as a hedge for a global recession and potential
decline in value of the U.S. dollar or the Euro.
On the supply side, production of gold has been relatively flat for the last 5-7
years and does not appear to be turning around due to maturing mines and higher
extraction costs.
The third reason to have some gold exposure in your portfolio is that it serves
as disaster insurance from unforeseen but potentially devastating events such as
widespread terrorism or severe economic or political upheaval.
Many gold bugs insist that the only true gold exposure is through gold coins. An
easier way to gain instant gold exposure is through the iShares COMEX Gold Trust
ETF ( IAU) that is up 15.3% so far this year. Another option is investing
through the iShares South Africa ETF (EZA) which has considerable exposure to
the gold and mining industry and is up 15.9% this year.
Don’t come down with gold fever. A 5-10% allocation to your core conservative
portfolio should get the job done. Expect some lusterless years as well as some
magnificent returns and restful nights knowing you have some gold under the
pillow.
About the Author:
Carl Delfeld is head of the global advisory firm Chartwell Partners and editor
of the the "Asia-Pacific Growth" newsletter and is the author of "The New Global
Investor." For more information please visit http://www.chartwellasia.com
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